Gm, today is the day of relief for investors at large across world particularly India, as we saw positive news flow on ceasefire for war in middle east. 🇮🇳 Risk On is back as oil slips the max in almost 6 years.

Plus wait and watch policy by RBI also gave more legs to momentum in Nifty that is up by almost 3.8% (yes we rarely see this type of positive markets nowadays).

There is lot of short squeeze that is taking place in market today particularly in BFSI, Auto and real estate stocks.

In todays environment, we will have to learn to avoid the noise and take structural views, otherwise getting slaughtered in given.

Good afternoon. Today marks the conclusion of the 2025-26 financial year, a period that the equity markets, particularly in India, may prefer to move past. The Nifty recorded a 5% negative return and remained largely flat over the past two years.

In contrast, gold and silver performed remarkably throughout the year, driven by demand for safe-haven assets, despite some moderation in prices during the final month. While bonds and real estate yielded positive returns, they were insufficient to offset inflation.

A key takeaway from FY26 is the critical importance of genuine diversification, extending beyond mere equity holdings to encompass a broader range of asset classes.

However, looking ahead to FY27, despite persistent global uncertainties, the downside risk appears diminished following the significant short-term correction. Indian equity valuations are approaching an attractive range, though sustained recovery will necessitate robust earnings growth and supportive policy initiatives.

FII’s, after substantial divestment, are anticipated to re-engage with the market. The optimal strategy for FY27 would involve a renewed focus on Indian equities and a strategic reduction in gold and silver allocations. High-quality companies are expected to lead the recovery once market conditions improve.

GM. As we approach the curtain-raiser for 2025, it has been a challenging year for Indian equities, particularly for the Mid and Small Cap Indices. However, the Nifty has maintained its position quite well thus far.

We observed persistent selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) throughout the year, amounting to approximately $17 bn. The Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided some solace by maintaining firm buying flows exceeding $65 billion.

It appears that FIIs found the Chinese market more appealing this year, possibly due to more favorable valuations and the absence of direct AI investment opportunities in India. Now, with indications of a potential slowdown in the AI boom, we might anticipate increased inflows from FIIs in 2026 as they seek to diversify their portfolios. Currency risk remains a significant factor to consider.

Gm. Billionbrains Garage Venture (Groww’s parent company), a recently listed discount brokerage, experienced a very successful listing on the stock exchange, with its market capitalization nearly reaching $12 bn. This certainly demonstrates strong investor confidence in India’s retail investing growth.

However, it is worth noting that the stock is currently trading at 4x the M cap of a comparable competitor in this sector, Angel One. Its valuation is also quite closer to that of Asia’s oldest stock exchange, BSE, and even surpasses the combined market capitalization of depositories (CDSL+NSDL) and RTA players such as CAMS and Kfintech. This suggests that once the initial excitement surrounding the IPO subsides, the stock may experience a period of consolidation.

GA, we have seen unprecedented momentum in gold that is witnessed after many years.

Political crises across many developed countries, a weaker dollar, buying by many central banks, and expectations of interest rate cuts from the US Fed have made the yellow metal a safe haven.

Silver, its sibling cousin, has also outshone all other asset classes. It has been a tough year for Indian equities so far. 🇮🇳 Although the market remains upbeat on changing economic data points, the mad rush of IPOs and secondary market fund raising by many promoters (more OFS than for business) remains the most worrying aspect.

Gm, as we are close to end of 1st of half of this fiscal year.
I believe it was fairly tough for Indian equity markets, as they underperformed MSCI Emerging markets. Also we saw FII money flow from India to China as well.

Offlate, we are seeing some flows in passive money flows in US listed India ETF, after continuous outflows in last few months.

The economic activity will also pick up in 2nd half coupled with interest rate cut would hopefully revive the sentiment.

Only joker the pack is the too much supply of papers by promoters in both primary and secondary markets.

GA, we all had a nail biting experience yesterday during the India v/s Pakistan final match. Indian team held their nerves till the last minute, and successfully snatched away victory from a tough opponent.

Few more learnings from the match:

1) Never be over complacent of your current position (Pakistan was 113/1 and then collapsed within 33 runs)
2) Be mentally strong, don’t give up till the end (India were 20/3, but then Mid order stabilised the innings)
3) Rise to the occasion (Focus was on Sharma but Verma delivered, when it mattered the most)
4) Timely grab of an opportunity (Verma, Samson, Dubey and Rinku)
5) Missing opportunity can cost you big (Verma run out chance)
6) Never give up till the end (this will ensure 7-0 score card)

Gm, the U.S. Federal Reserve, in line with market expectations, has reduced the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and provided a dovish outlook, projecting two additional rate cuts before the year’s end. The focus has demonstrably shifted towards the labor market, superseding inflation concerns. Newly appointed official Stephen Miran dissented, advocating for a 50-basis-point reduction. Consequently, the market is anticipated to exhibit a positive trajectory, anticipating further dovish signals. The U.S. dollar is expected to remain subdued, while gold and equities are projected to maintain an upward trend.

GA, recent bond market activity indicates a sell-off in the long-dated global bond market. Specifically, we’ve observed a rise in 30-year US yields, reaching approximately 5%. The UK is experiencing its highest yields in 27 years, at 5.75%, while Japan is witnessing a significant increase in its 20-year bond yields, the most substantial in a century.

This trend may be attributed to increased government spending in developed nations and potential inflationary pressures stemming from trade tariffs. Additionally, the supply of corporate bonds in the region is contributing to the pressure. As the Federal Reserve prepares to potentially lower interest rates, traders are generally favoring shorter-dated notes over longer-dated bonds.

The increase in the long-dated yield curve suggests that global bond investors are concerned about fiscal irresponsibility and the overall inflation outlook of developed countries.